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Tracking greenhouse gasses important to Arizona

By Erin Jordan - email

TUCSON, AZ (KOLD) -  A new plane equipped to monitor greenhouse gasses is off on a north to south trip of the world. 

This important research may lead to a better understanding of changes in our own Arizona downpours. 

Part one of this story began on Saturday with the take-off of a Gulfstream Jet from a small airport tucked away in the snowy foothills of the Colorado Rockies. 

Part two took place at the University of North Carolina where scientists selected Arizona rain data, plugged it into a model, and increased CO2 levels to see what would happen. 

The Gulfstream jet that took of Saturday was loaded with equipment that will measure greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

The jet will fly from Colorado to Alaska to the North Pole, Hawaii, American Samoa, New Zealand, the South Pole, Tahiti, Easter Island, Costa Rica, and back to Colorado. 

All the while it will cruise at altitudes ranging from 1000 to 47,000 feet, measuring atmospheric conditions the entire way. 

There will be a total of four missions that last 21 days and cover almost 28,000 miles. 

The missions will fly at different times of the year to get a good sampling of greenhouse gasses in all seasons. 

The idea is to see how greenhouse gasses are distributed through the atmosphere around the world and during various seasons.

This will help climate modelers input more accurate current conditions into climate models with the idea of getting more accurate outputs. 

Also, multiple missions spanned across the years will help scientists get more accurate readings of CO2 levels and how those levels could change in years to come. 

For more information on this project click here.

Now part two. 

In my recent research for a project for my one of my PhD classes at UA, I came across a very interesting study with the lead authors from the University of North Carolina. 

The authors took rainfall data from January 1949 to June 1989 for eight Arizona weather stations (including Tucson). 

That data was then used to build a model that was calibrated, validated, and then used to predict how various phases of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation would affect rainfall totals in an atmosphere that had double the CO2 levels. 

What the authors found is that in almost every scenario, the rainfall decreased. 

This was even true in El Nino years where Arizona generally sees more rainfall, especially in the winter. 

If you would like more information on this study e-mail me at ejordan@kold.com. 

This is an intriguing study because CO2 levels have risen significantly in the last 150 years...basically since the industrial revolution began. 

Closely monitoring CO2 levels will help scientists determine if the rise is continuing, leveling off, or decreasing. 

If scientists do find the levels continue to rise, then the study referenced above will help people living in the southwest keep an eye on changes in rainfall and possibly lead to more research into how elevated CO2 levels affect drought conditions. 

Since every drop counts in the Arizona, even a small decrease in rainfall averages over the long term can be felt.  - First Alert Meteorologist Erin Jordan

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