KELLY: What happens when Arizona Football scores four runs or more?

Trust me it will make sense

KELLY: What happens when Arizona Football scores four runs or more?
Despite averaging almost 40 points in their last two games, UA doesn't have a win to show for it. (Source: Mike Christy/Arizona Athletics)

TUCSON, Ariz. (KOLD News 13) - For all the years I worked in baseball we always kept a stat that was indicative of winning and losing.

It’s a stat you still see in most team’s game notes.

What happens when your team scores 4 or more runs and when your team scores 3 runs or less.

For example, the Diamondbacks after Thursday night’s 11-4 win over the Dodgers are now 57-27 (.679) this season when they score 4 runs or more and 11-39 (.220) when they score 3 runs or less.

It’s generally believed a good team should win around 75% of their games if they score 4 or more runs.

The Dodgers for example are 72-12 in such games (.857). My Indians are 66-13 (.835). Another .500 team similar to the Diamondbacks, the New York Mets are 62-27 (.697).

So what does his have to do with football?

I was trying to find a comparable win-loss barometer for college football and in particular the Arizona Wildcats.

In the decade that is the teens (2010-19), UA as we discussed on Twitter earlier this week is pretty average.

The Wildcats are 59-57. And they’ve scored at a rate of around 32 points per game.

I couldn’t decide whether to set the number at 30 or 35. I set it at 35, an even five touchdowns.

Here is Arizona’s record, since 2010, when they score 35 points or more and when they score 34 points or less.

  • 35 or more: 46-9 (.836)
  • 34 or less: 13-48 (.213)

That’s pretty on point with the baseball concept.

And it’s what makes these last two losses (Arizona State and Hawaii) even more frustrating. Those are games (40 vs. ASU and 38 vs. Hawaii) Arizona normally wins.

I don’t know if that makes you feel any better about where this program is right now but at least you have a better idea heading into the rest of the season what the benchmark needs to be offensively anyway for this team to even have a chance at succeeding.

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