Don’t believe the polls! 2022 AZ general election shaping up to be very unpredictable

KOLD News 6-6:30 p.m. recurring
Published: Sep. 29, 2022 at 7:47 PM MST
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TUCSON, Ariz. (KOLD News 13) - Voter registration numbers can’t predict the outcome of an election but it can measure intensity and which party may have the momentum in any given election but here in Pima County this year the numbers are rather puzzling.

“One of the largest is the no party designation,” said Gabriel Cazares-Kelly, the Pima County Recorder. “So more people are choosing not to affiliate with a party, a lot more independent voters.”

The numbers bear that out. In the past ten days, 843 Democrats have registered to vote, 494 republicans have registered to vote and 1062 have registered independent, rejecting both parties . This has been the trend throughout summer at least.

“We’ve been seeing this trend of people being angry and wanting to change their party either to something or from something,” Cazares-Kelly said. “They’re frustrated by the stress and anger they’re seeing in the community.”

Some of that anger may result from the US Supreme Court abortion decision overturning Roe vs. Wade through the Dobbs decision. OH Predictive Insights in a recent survey said that nearly 70% of women voters in this election say they will likely consider that when they cast ballots.

However, whether that’s led to increased registration in Pima County is not measured.

“We don’t keep information on how many male or female voters there are,” she said. “We don’t have those demographics specifically.”

But she will say, “our office has seen a ton of voter registration forms both paper and online.”

Which indicates an high degree of interest in the election but for some, it seems not so much.

Republicans, once reliable poll workers, were missing in action during the primary season.

“We would have Democrats and Independents at locations and you know we were kind of scrambling to find republicans who were willing to work for us,” Cazares-Kelly said.

That adds another layer of uncertainty, making predicting this election cycle, very unpredictable.