Midterm election too close to call, but some hints could determine winners

TUCSON, Ariz. (KOLD News 13) -Generally, in a midterm election in Arizona, picking winners and losers is fairly simple. The Republicans hold a structural advantage, an advantage in registration and an advantage in enthusiasm.

However, in the 2022 midterms, it appears all of that can be thrown out the window. Or so it seems.

“Normally this would be a cycle where Republicans should just run the table,” said Chuck Coughlin, the President and CEO of Highground, Inc., a political consulting firm in Phoenix.

However, the races are close and there’s no accurate way to predict who will win or lose.

There have been 1.4 million ballots cast the day before the election. Of those, Democrats hold a 23,000 vote lead. That’s good for Democrats but it may not be enough.

“Republicans are going to vote very hard on election day,” said Mike Noble, co-founder of OH Predictive Insights, a polling firm. “Usually democrats have a very strong lead at the beginning but as those ballots get counted, those day of votes, which are going to skew very Republican, when the rural votes start coming in, you’re going to see the Republicans start to claw back but the question is do they have enough to overtake it or stop short.”

Coughlin has an idea where the GOP and Democrats need to stand in their vote totals to have a shot at victory.

“You think in order to survive that Republican tsunami on election day, you think they’re going to need 80-thousand to 100-thousand vote margin,” he said.

That margin should be apparent by the 8:00 p.m. ballot dump and will be an indication whether the party will have a good night or the Democrats will be the ones celebrating.

Republicans should do well in this midterm because it’s the out party. Democrats now control all the levers of power in Washington which should give the GOP incentive to turn out. But that’s not certain this election cycle.

The US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade this past summer has given the Democrats a boost. That and the election denialism has cost the party credibility.

“Those two areas, the Republican ticket has substantially handicapped itself from normally experiencing the kind of wave that should have happened in this election,” Coughlin said.

And he offers a bit of solace to the people who are on pins and needles, concerned about the outcome.

“It’s oh so close,” he said. “It’s just that everybody’s on edge and what I keep repeating to myself and tell all my friends that’s worked up about this, God is good, God always provides a way out and he will provide a way out of this.”

Well, that may be so but still for those not so religiously inclined, he goes on to say, “it is never as bad as we think it is and it’s never as good as we think it is. It is what it is.”

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