Arizona has competing propositions on ballot. What happens if both win?
TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) - For the first time in decades, Arizona has competing propositions on the ballot.
What happens if they both win, if both receive more than 50% of the vote?
Propositions 133 and 140 both have to do with primary elections, but whichever one gets the majority of votes, could change the way primary elections are conducted in the state in the future.
Prop. 133 will maintain the status quo for the most part, which is closed primaries. Each party conducts its own primaries at the exclusion of everyone else.
Prop. 140 will open primaries to all candidates and all parties, including independents, the fastest-growing political registration in the state.
“62% of the people who said they were supporting closed primaries also indicated they also are supporting open primaries,” said Mike Noble, CEO of Predictive Insights, a polling and analysis company” “Ain’t that a head-scratcher.”
A head scratcher because the two propositions are polar opposites.
The only thing they have in common is they are both on the ballot.
Prop. 133 is a referendum placed on the ballot by the Republican-controlled legislature.
“They put a rider on there that said if both of these pass, this one takes precedence no matter who gets more votes,” Noble said. “Ain’t that wild.”
It may be wild, but according to most folks we talked with, also likely unconstitutional.
They believe both are on equal footing and the one with the highest voter preference wins.
“The top vote-getter wins, the one with the most votes wins,” said Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of AZ HighGround, a political consulting firm. “And winning means you have to get over 50% of the electorate to support you.”
Coughlin said the one with the highest vote total wins according to state law, despite what the lawmakers have in mind.
A look at polling from Predictive Insights shows neither has a majority vote right now. Prop. 133 has less than a third of voter support.
Prop. 140 has a plurality but not a majority although Coughlin believes it’s over 50% now, maybe as high as 52% with room to grow.
What might be giving it more support, is that it will give the independents a voice, which they do not have now.
Independents, under the present system, are required to choose either party if they want to cast a ballot in the primary.
“They’re forcing you to vote for a straight party ticket in a primary, whereas you may want to vote for a Democrat for Congress and a Republican for county supervisor,” Coughlin said. “You can’t do that today.”
It is very rare that the voters have competing measures on the same ballot. It is generally a tactic used by partisan lawmakers to confuse voters when popular voter initiatives qualify for the ballot.
But supporters feel that confusion could work to their advantage in this election cycle. There is so much disgust with the present system of government, that many voters may welcome a change.
“If you think it’s working well today, 133 is your vote. “If you don’t think that it’s working well ‚140 is your vote,” Coughlin said. “It’s a nice contrast.”
That contrast should make it easier for voters.
If neither proposition passes, things stay the same.
If Prop. 133 passes, it will make a few changes, including forcing cities and towns to adopt partisan primaries even if they are non-partisan now. But for the most part, the status quo remains.
If Prop. 140 passes and receives a majority, the world of voting changes in Arizona to include all voters and all parties in all primaries.
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